Value bet
Value betting is a term that is used among experienced, advanced players. Searching the Internet for information on this issue, one can encounter a lot of misinformation. Particularly glaring is the fact that many assume Value bet as an objective factor rather than a subjective one. This can be dangerous to budget, especially for novice players. However, let’s start at the beginning. What does the term Value betting actually mean?
Value bet - definition
Value bet means that a given bet has higher odds than the probability implies. Such a bet is a Value bet and, at least in theory, betting on such bets should be profitable for the player in the long run. Let’s use an example. Let’s assume a match between two NHL ice hockey teams for the final victory. St Louis Blues – Colorado Avalanche. For the purpose of the example, we assume that on the days of the game, given lineups, team dispositions and taking into account other factors, the odds break down exactly 50-50. Natomias odds issued by the bookmaker are as follows: 2.08 for a final victory of the St Louis Blues and 1.83 for the Colorado Avalanche. With such assumptions and odds, we can consider that a bet on the final victory of the St Louis Blues is a value bet. This is the theory of the term. Simple, isn’t it? Yes, in theory, yes, however, the further into the woods the matter may become more complicated, although it doesn’t have to, as will be discussed in later sections.
Value bet is an objective or subjective value?
Value betting is not an objective value despite the fact that you can find content on the Internet that suggests it, especially from type sellers who want to sell their types as value bets. This can be considered that the term is used as an advertising slogan for such sites. It should be stated with certainty that value betting is 100% subjective. What for one player may be a Value bet for another may instead be an opposite bet in the same event a Value bet. Like the example above of an NHL match. Player X estimates the odds at 55-45, player Y 45-55, while the bookmaker 50-50. Who is right? Of course, before the match starts you never know. Contrary to value bet, surebet are an example of objective and measurable value. So does the term value bets not make the slightest sense? Of course it does. This is when the experience and wisdom of the betting player comes onto the scene.
An advanced, winning player can effectively estimate value bets in a sport/league he knows and follows, or he can use his own methods that allow for an optimal outcome. Of course, all the time this is a subjective factor and will never be 100% effective, but an advanced player can estimate, say, 55% of matches as value bets maintaining a long-term positive result. Thus, it should be concluded that, generally understood, the quality of the player is everything in value betting.
Where to find value bets?
The obvious choice for anyone looking for value bets will be sites with high odds. The lower the margin on the odds, the greater the chance of finding higher odds on the bets of interest. For this reason, it’s worth paying attention to sports betting brokers, who, in addition to the highest odds, offer the possibility of betting on high stakes, which may not be possible at classic recreational bookmakers. Limits are also an important issue, because what good is finding a valuable bet if we can’t place a high stake on it, of course, this applies especially to advanced players. Thus, choosing a broker like BetInAsia or Asianconnect seems to be the optimal solution for value betting seekers. Choosing the right site with high odds will certainly radically increase the chances of finding interesting value bets.
How to properly evaluate a value bet?
There is no short and clear-cut answer to this question just as there is no single factor that determines whether we are likely to properly estimate selected bets in terms of value betting. The only rational answer may be that if you are not yet an advanced player, you may have some difficulty in accurately estimating your selected bets. But of course, nothing is lost, you can gradually and successively improve the quality of your bets, increasing your experience and thus your chances of estimating the odds more effectively. It is impossible to create a single tutorial on the title issue, because in this case the overall quality of the player matters, so an increase in overall knowledge is necessary.
It is certainly worth following the odds from their issuance to the start of a given bet. Odds are dynamic and can fluctuate in different directions, which means that a value bet may be available only for a given short period of time, only to disappear after a while, but of course this is not the rule, sometimes such a bet may be available from the issuance of the odds to the very beginning of the meeting. Watching the odds will also help you assess the fluctuation of the odds in a given event and will also improve the timing in placing a bet.